BYD set to pass Tesla in global EV sales race

Chinese automaker BYD is on track to become the world’s largest electric vehicle seller in 2025, edging past longtime leader Tesla based on current sales figures.

As both companies prepare to release their full-year numbers, the gap is already clear. By the end of November, BYD had sold around 2.07 million electric vehicles worldwide. That figure already exceeds what analysts expect Tesla to deliver for the entire year.

Tesla reported sales of about 1.22 million EVs by the end of September. A late surge followed ahead of the expiration of a US tax credit for electric vehicles, but forecasts suggest momentum slowed again in the final quarter. Market consensus points to Tesla finishing 2025 with roughly 1.65 million EVs sold, down from last year.

The tax credit boost came before the $7,500 incentive ended under legislation supported by US President Donald Trump. Industry analysts say the removal of incentives has created a transition period for EV demand in the United States, with buyers taking a wait-and-see approach.

Tesla has also faced pressure in Europe and China, where competition has intensified. Deutsche Bank estimates fourth-quarter sales could fall sharply in North America and Europe, with a smaller dip in China. Some analysts say public reaction to CEO Elon Musk and his political views has also affected brand sentiment in certain markets.

Even so, investors remain focused on Tesla’s longer-term plans. Analysts see autonomous driving as a potential growth driver, with attention already shifting to 2026. Tesla continues to develop its full self-driving technology and has announced plans to produce its Cybercab robotaxi next year. Lower-priced versions of the Model 3 and Model Y have also been introduced to support demand.

BYD, meanwhile, continues to expand at scale. The company sells both battery electric and hybrid vehicles and has built a strong presence beyond China. While competition and price pressure remain intense in its home market, BYD has pushed into overseas production to support global growth.

According to Fitch Ratings, BYD’s early move to establish factories and supply chains outside China could help it manage rising trade barriers. While the United States has imposed steep tariffs on Chinese EVs, Europe has taken a different approach. BYD is already building manufacturing capacity in Hungary as part of its European expansion.

Tariffs introduced under former US President Joe Biden and the prospect of higher duties under Trump have complicated the global EV market. Despite this, BYD’s sales pace suggests it has found ways to keep growing.

As 2025 closes, the global EV landscape looks different from just a few years ago. Tesla still holds strong brand recognition and future technology bets. BYD, however, now leads on volume and reach, signaling a shift in who sets the pace in electric mobility.